SON PREFERENCE, FERTILITY CHOICES, AND LABOR MARKET SEGMENTATION IN VIETNAM

By Võ Hoàng Long VNP-29

Supervisor: Dr. Hồ Hoàng Anh

Abstract:

This study investigates the interplay between son preference, fertility choices, and labor market segmentation in Vietnam using instrumental variable probit (IV-Probit) model on Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) data from 2010 to 2020. Findings reveal that son preference contribute to lower fertility. Using son preference as an instrument for fertility, we uncover that having fewer children increases the likelihood of labor force participation, particularly for women. It also shifts individuals away from agriculture and manufacturing toward the service sector. While women with fewer children exhibit increased opportunities in manufacturing compared to men, it also reduces their participation in informal, unskilled employment or multi-job engagement, reflecting improved access to higher-quality job opportunities. These patterns align with the Feminization U Hypothesis and Unified Growth Theory, highlighting how Vietnam's demographic transitions, shaped by cultural norms, influence labor market dynamics. To ensure sustainable economic growth, policies should prioritize reducing gender biases and moderating prenatal sex selection to maintain a stable workforce and human capital stock, particularly in GDP-driving sectors. Addressing the childbearing-career trade-off requires expanding formal jobs, improving job benefits, and fostering innovation in agriculture and manufacturing, while enhancing childcare supports and workplace flexibility in services for inclusive economic progress.