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Impact of financial depth and domestic credit on economic growth: The case of low and middle-income countries from 1995-2014

By Le Thi Hoang Anh (VNP 19)

Supervisor: Dr. Pham Thi Bich Ngoc

Abstract

This paper focuses on the impacts of financial development on economic growth with the cases of 122 low and middle-income countries from 1995 to 2014. Indicators for financial development include the ratio of liquid liabilities to GDP and the ratio of domestic credit to private sector by banks to GDP. Control variables include the inflation rate, the ratio of government final consumption expenditures to GDP, the ratio of exports and imports to GDP, and the total enrollment in secondary education. Research results are drawn from estimation methods of Pooled OLS, FEM (Fixed Effects Model), REM (Random Effects Model) and GMM (Generalized Method of Moments). Accordingly, financial development is concluded to have negative effects on economic growth in countries with low and middle incomes during 1995-2014. Nevertheless, the estimation results have some differences due to the differences in the estimation methods.
In particular, the ratio of domestic credit to private sector by banks to GDP has negative impacts on economic growth rate, which is concluded by both FEM and GMM regression results. However, the impacts of the ratio of liquid liabilities to GDP on economic growth rate are differently described by the two estimation methods. According to the FEM regression results, the ratio of liquid liabilities is statistically significant and has negative influences on economic growth rate. However, according to the GMM regression results, the ratio of liquid liabilities to GDP is statistically insignificant and has no effects on the economic growth rate. Although the estimation results by FEM and GMM estimation methods have some variations, the final conclusions are considered to be identical: Financial development is proposed to have negative impacts on economic growth of countries with low and middle incomes. The explanations for the negative impacts can be drawn from the fact that capital investments tend to have low productivity and weak efficiency in countries with low and middle incomes.

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