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The relationship between migration and climate change: A case of Vietnam

By Ngo Chi Tam (VNP 22)

Supervisor: Dr. Dang Le Hoa

Abstract

This study attempts to examine the relationship between migration and climate change. The data is extracted from VHLSS in 2014 and 2016. The surveys were conducted by GSO, including 1635 observations. The analysis is based on the theoretical framework from the migration model of Black et al. (2011). The research applies the logit regression models to specify the impacts of some factors on the probability of migration, especially climate change. The major factors are sudden, temporary environmental events and gradual onset and long-term environmental disasters, and the awareness of climate change. The estimation results show that if people suffer the severe effect of sudden and temporary environmental events, their migration probability will increase by 0.021. More importantly, we also find additional evidence for the presence of the stimulating impact of the sudden and temporary events on migration probability in the female population and the group of people aged 32 years old and under. Meanwhile, the influence of gradual onset and long-term environmental disasters and the awareness of climate change are uncertain.

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